>WE CAN'T LOAD EVERYTHING ONTO THE LAND
>
>        I'm just back from a meeting of forest products companies in which
>everyone was enthusing about fiber that doesn't come from forests.  Proud
>entrepreneurs were handing around kenaf paper, boards made from wheat straw,
>cardboard made from hemp.
>
>        These products, they said, can stop deforestation.  Over the last 50
>years one-fourth of the world's forests have disappeared.  The human
population
>is growing by 90 million a year.  World paper demand is doubling every 20
>years.  These trends can't last forever or even much longer.  Some companies
at
>the meeting are already facing wood shortages.
>
>        The folks who make pencils, for example, say they're running out of
>incense cedar, which has provided pencil stock for decades.  They're
>experimenting with pencils made from recycled cardboard.  Paper companies
are
>fooling around with bamboo, flax, sugarcane waste and fast-growing tropical
>trees, sown and fertilized like corn fields, harvested every seven years. 
With
>such plantations, one guy told me, we can grow all the world's paper on an
area
>the size of Sweden.
>
>        I would find this news cheery, if I knew there were enough chunks of
>unused tropical farmland to add up to a Sweden (and in 20 years two
Swedens),
>and if I hadn't also been listening to the energy industry.  Low oil prices
may
>be lulling consumers, but suppliers know how many oil fields are nearing the
>end of their productive life, and they're watching global conferences get
>serious about cutting back fossil fuel burning to ease the greenhouse
effect.
>We'll need substitutes for oil, coal, and gas later or sooner.  One
alternative
>they're talking about is biomass.
>
>        The North Dakota company making kitchen cabinets from straw may have
to
>compete with the Danish company making boilers that burn straw by the bale
>(loaded in with forklifts) to make electricity and steam for district
heating.
>Sugarcane waste is already a major fuel in sugar mills.  Those fast-growing
>tropical trees are needed for village cooking.  We subsidize Archer-Daniels
>Midland to make car fuel from corn, and millions of cars in Brazil run on
>ethanol made from sugarcane.  The Germans and Swedes are perfecting cars
that
>run on vegetable oil.
>
>        Is there enough farmland to relieve depleting forests and depleting
oil
>wells at the same time?  And depleting fisheries?  Thirteen of the fifteen
>major ocean fisheries are in decline, primarily because of overfishing. 
That
>industry too has thought of a substitute: aquaculture.  The trouble is, the
>feed for fish farms comes not from the ocean's food chains any more, but
from
>grain raised on land.
>
>        So we are planning to transfer the burdens currently borne by the
>forests, the oceans, and the oil wells to the farmland, while feeding 90
>million extra people each year, though we are not feeding everyone
sufficiently
>now.  Meanwhile, in one of the least noted and most historic shifts of this
>century, total food raised per capita worldwide peaked in the mid-1980s and
has
>gone down ever since. There are many reasons for that turnaround, but one of
>the big ones is the loss of cropland.
>
>        In the last ten years the United States has buried 3.8 million acres
of
>prime soil under buildings and pavement.  Over the same period booming Asia
>lost ten percent of its grainland to urbanization.  Erosion, salinization,
and
>other forms of bad management have destroyed, according to the U.N., 16
percent
>of global cropland, with another 52 percent "moderately degraded" and
showing
>"greatly reduced productivity."
>
>        While the world's swelling cities are paving farmland and demanding
>food, they are also sucking in water.  San Diego and El Paso are buying
water
>away from farmers.  Parts of India, Indonesia, and Malaysia will have to
>irrigate 15-30 percent less land to meet their urban water demands.  From
China
>to Mexico to California's Central Valley, irrigation is pumping out
groundwater
>faster than it recharges.  When the water is gone, some of the world's
richest
>soils will no longer be able to grow food or fiber or energy.
>
>        The agriculture sector is planning to solve these problems, of
course,
>by using more fossil fuel for fertilizer, by expanding forests to renew
water
>supplies and control erosion, and by composting straw and other fibrous
wastes
>to bring back the humus content and water absorptive capacity of the soil.
>
>        Something here does not compute.
>
>        I have no doubt that we can increase crop yields, make fish and
fiber
>plantations, turn almost any plant into fiberboard or paper, recycle
massively,
>run cars on biofuels, and use the earth's resources with much higher
efficiency
>and more careful stewardship.  I hope we will.  I just don't see how we'll
get
>there, if the managers of every resource plow heedlessly through it,
assuming
>they can turn to some other resource when theirs is gone.
>
>        Maybe we should set up a simple rule: before you try to impress us
with
>your brilliant plans for invading some other resource base, please show us
how
>efficiently and sustainably you can manage your own.
>
>        (Donella H. Meadows is an adjunct professor of environmental studies
at
>Dartmouth College.)
>