ELOZETES A GAIA SAJTOSZEMLEBOL
KORNYESZ 515, 1998. majus 15. 
Donella Meadows: Don't Get Into Evolutionary Races With Small Critters
(Ne vetelkedj a kis teremtmenyekkel az evolucio soran) Mi az ipari
kulturaban nagyon elfogadjuk a fizika torvenyeit. Nem vesztegetunk
idot ra, hogy orokmozgot epitsunk. Nem varjuk, hogy az eso folfele 
essen, vagy hogy megszunjon a nehezkedes. Ezek a valosagnak tett
engedmenyek nem allitjak meg a haladast, csak megovnak bennunket a
zsakutcaktol es a szerencsetlensegektol. Barcsak ennyire tisztelnenk
az okologia torvenyeit. Egy okologiai torveny semmibe vetele
eredmenyezte azt a gondot, amirol a New England Journal of Medicine
majus 7-i szama ir. A Salmonella bakterium evente sok millio amerikait
fertoz meg. A legtobbnel gyomor-belhuzam bajokat okozhat de meg is
olhet nagyon fiatalokat, nagyon oregeket, vagy olyanokat, akik
vedekezo rendszere karosodott, ha nem utjuk ki antibiotikumokkal. Az a
gond, hogy van egy alakja, a DT104, amelyik ellenallo otfele
antibiotikummal szemben (ampicillin, chloramfenikol, streptomicin,
szulfonamidok, tetraciklin). 1980-ban a DT104-gyel szembeni ellenallo
kepesseg kevesebb, mint 1%-ban jelentkezett, ma mar 34%-ban. Elterjedt
Angliaban is, ahol egyes torzsei 6 vagy 7 szernek is ellenallnak.
Miert? Sok orvos es kutato, beleertve az Egeszsegugyi Vilagszervezet
szakertoi bizottsagat, feltetelezi, hogy azert, mert gondtalanul
alkalmazzuk az antibiotikumokat, kulonosen az allatok etetese soran.
Marhak, csirkek es disznok zart helyen valo tartasa kedvez a
fertozesek terjedesenek, ezert szokasos modon antibiotikumokat
kevernek a taplalekukhoz. Az EA-ban az antibiotikumok 40%-at erre
hasznaljak.  A megsertett okologiai torveny ebben az esetben a
termeszetes kivalasztas.Ha a szokasos orvosi adagban alkalmazzak az
antibiotikumot, az elpusztitja. Ha naponta kis adagokat kap, egy
reszuk elpusztul. A tobbi tuleli es termeszetesen ellenallo lesz
iranta. Egyre inkabb ellenallo, nemzedekek soran keresztul. Ez eppen
annyira termeszetes, mint hogy a viz lefele folyik. Akik ezt
megertettek, evek ota igyekeznek megakadalyozni az allatok rendszeres
antibiotikummal valo eteteset. Europaban megtiltottak, kiveve Nagy
Britanniat. A New England Journal cikke szerint:  Az Egyesult
Kiralysagban a DT104 mindenfele elofordul az allati, foleg a marha
taplalekban es a vizsgalatok szerint a vele valo emberi fertozesek
olyanoknal fordulnak elo, akik serteskolbaszt, csirke- es mas
huskremet fogyasztottak vagy beteg allatokkal erintkeztek. Az EA-ban
olyanokon is kimutattak a a DT104 fertozest, akik nem hokezelt tejbol
keszult tejtermeket fogyasztottak, vagy kapcsolatba kerultek az
allatokkal." Semmi aggodalom, mondjak egyesek nagy derulatassal.
Feltalalhatunk uj antibiotikumokat.  Azonban az evolucios versenges
ezekkel a kicsi, gyorsan szaporodo, alkalmazkodo teremtmenyekkel, mint
amilyenek a bakteriumok es a rovarok, annyira  nyerheto meg, amennyire
kepesek vagyunk orokmozgo gepet alkotni. A novenyvedoszer-gyarosok mar
evekkel ezelott megtanultak ezt a lecket. Ha a videket beszorjuk
bogar-mergekkel, mint a tenyesztett allatokat antibiotikumokkal, akkor
a bogarak valnak ellenallova. Tobb mint 500 kartevo faj valt vedette a
novenyvedoszerekkel szemben. Azonban ugy latszik, hogy nem tanulunk. A
termeszetes kivalasztodasra vonatkozo tudatlansagunk uj szakaszaban
mar nem csak az emberiseg legjobb kartevo ellenes gyakorlatat tesszuk
tonkre, hanem magat a termeszetet. A Bacilus thuringiensis, roviden Bt
termeszetes korulmenyek kozott ott van a talajban es a leveleken es
varja, hogy egy bogar megegye. A Bt kulonfele torzsei megfertozik a
bogarakat, pl. a kaposzta-ferget, a kukorica-ferget, a
kolorado-bogarat. A bogarak beleben boldogan szaporodik, toxint
termel, amelyik megoli a bogarat es millionyi baci szabadul ki,
amelyik ujabb bogarakat fertoz. A szerves kerteszek a BT-t mint
termeszetes rovarirtot hasznaljak. A fergekben nem alakul ki a Bt
elleni ellenallo kepesseg, mert nem kerulnek kapcsolatba a mereggel,
amig el nem fogyasztjak a bacit. Most jon a Monsanto es kinyisszantja
a Bt meregtermelest intezo genjet es belerakja a krumpli, kukorica es
gyapot genjeibe. A genpiszkalt magvak jo dragak, mert a noveny minden
sejtje novenyvedo szert termel. Ha egy krumplibogar vagy egy
gyapotfereg eszik a levelbol, akkor merget is fogyaszt. Tokeletes
modszer ra, hogy ellenallo kartevoket allitsanak elo. Az alkalmi
meregfogyasztas helyett a bogar allandoan talalkozik azzal. Keves
merget esznek, igy csak 60-90%-uk pusztul el. A tobbi tuleli es uj
nemzedeket  fial". Senki sem tudja, hogy mi tortenik a termeszetben,
ha a vad rovarok is ellenallok lesznek a Bt-vel szemben.  A szerves
termeloket folhaboritja, hogy az okologiailag suket vallalatok
megsemmisitik a leghatekonyabb termeszetes vedekezest. Azt kellene
gondolnunk, hogy a Monsanto maga is aggodik, mivel a Bt-val szembeni
ellenallas tonkreteszi a sajat genpiszkalt termekeiket. Azt allitjak,
hogy van egy  ellenallo kepesseg kezelesi tervuk", amely a legtobb
termelo es rovartanasz szerint kidolgozhatatlan. Most a szoszolojuk
azt mondja, hogy az ellenallas valoszinu, de, mondja Erich Sachs, a
Monsanto egyik igazgatoja,  Az ellenallo kepesseg nem valoszinu, hogy
ot even belul kialakuljon, es ezalatt uj modszereket dolgozunk ki,
amelyek tovabb csokkentik majd az ellenallo kepesseg valoszinuseget"
Bizzunk benne. Meglesz az orokmozgo gepezetunk. Igy jutunk elore, s
megsemmisitjuk az osszes tobbi gepet, amelyik most meg jol mukodik.
Pi.

>The UNFCCC secretariat is pleased to announce the launch of its new 
Fellowship
>Programme.  
>
>Under the Programme, professionals from developing countries or 
countries with
>economies in transition are provided with a financial stipend to spend 
3 months
>at the secretariat headquarters in Bonn undertaking analytical, 
policy-related
>work in their field of expertise.  
>
>Basic information on the programme is given below.  Further details can 
be
>obtained from the secretariat web site (http://www.unfccc.de) or from 
the
>address given.
>
>I would be grateful if you could pass on this information to any 
prospective
>Fellowship Programme candidates you may know of.  
>
>Jo Depledge
>Programme Officer

>
>
>                UNFCCC FELLOWSHIP PROGRAMME
>
>What is the UNFCCC Fellowship Programme?
>
> The UNFCCC Fellowship Programme is a new initiative aimed at enhancing 
the
>capacity of developing countries and countries with economies in 
transition to
>address climate change through the development of professional 
expertise.  
>
>    Under the Fellowship Programme, professionals from developing 
countries and
>countries with economies in transition undertake policy-related, 
analytical work
>of relevance to their countries at the Convention secretariat 
headquarters in
>Bonn, Germany.  The work programme is determined in consultation with 
each
>fellow according to his/her particular area of interest and expertise.  
It is
>expected that fellows will put the experience they have gained at the
>secretariat to work in their home countries.
>
>What are the conditions?
>
>Five fellowships are awarded annually for a period of three months.  A 
financial
>stipend is provided to fellows for that period and travel costs are 
also
>covered.  Fellows cannot be considered for employment at the 
secretariat until a
>period of six months has elapsed after the end of their fellowship.  
>
>Who is eligible to apply?
>
>    Applicants must be nationals of developing countries or countries 
with
>economies in transition which are currently Parties to the Convention. 
>Applicants should normally be no more than 35 years of age, hold a 
Masters
>degree, and be working in their country in a climate change related 
field.  Good
>communication skills in English are required.
>
>How can interested individuals apply?
>
>    Further details and the application form can be obtained from the
>secretariat web site (http://www.unfccc.de) or from the Fellowship 
Programme
>office at:
>
>            Ms. Joanna Depledge
>Fellowship Programme office
>Climate Change secretariat
>PO Box 260 124
>D-53153 Bonn, Germany
>Tel: (49 228) 815 1000; Fax: (49 228) 815 1999
>E-mail: 
>
>Applications for the current selection round should reach the 
>Fellowship Programme Office by 1 October 1998.
>
>

Y2K AND THE AVERAGE BITE OF FOOD

The average bite of food eaten by an American travels 1300 miles from field to
mouth.

That statistic is quoted over and over by people who want us to think about how
distant we are from our basic sustenance, how vulnerable our lives have become,
how dependent on systems we can't control or even understand.  These people
intend to scare us in the same way the people who are yammering about the Y2K
problem intend to scare us.

Y2K is the computer world's label for a bug that apparently infests computer
programs everywhere.  Y2K stands for "year two thousand," K being the
scientific abbreviation for "kilo," which means thousand.  As you have
undoubtedly heard, programmers, back when computer memory was scarce, entered
only the last two digits for years -- "73" for 1973 -- never thinking of the
moment when the clock would turn over to "00."

Now some credit cards are already bouncing because a computer assumes that "00"
means the card expired in 1900.  One chemical company, testing for Y2K problems
by artificially advancing the date throughout its automated factories,
discovered a computer chip that would have shut down a cooling system at
midnight on December 31, 1999, probably causing an explosion.  That problem got
fixed, but, the experts say, half of large corporations and 75 percent of small
businesses are unprepared for Y2K, and the government is especially far behind.
 
Social Security and Medicare payments could be held up for nobody knows how
long, as computers deduce that someone born in 1930 is minus 30 years old.

Here's a typical list of computer-dependent entities that could go haywire:
air-traffic and railroad control systems, banks, stock exchanges, insurance
companies, electric utilities, major manufacturing installations.  One
consultant estimates that there are 50 million chips embedded in hospital
equipment, burglar alarms, oil refineries, power stations, elevators, all of
which could shut a machine down if they think it was last serviced in 1900. 
The National Federation of Independent Businesses estimates that the Y2K bug
will bankrupt 330,000 small businesses.

I have listened to this scare talk with a mixture of disbelief, fear,
amusement, and the sort of smugness that doubters can't resist when technology
goes awry.  Ha!  Those smart-alec computers that are supposed to save us time
are now demanding enormous amounts of time just to fix a stupid mistake. 
(State Farm Insurance has been grappling with the Y2K problem since 1989 and
still has 100 employees working on it full time.)  Furthermore I can see in the
short-sightedness of the programmers an apt metaphor for other social
short-sightedness.  (Such as oil wells or groundwater wells running dry, which
will happen about as far ahead of us now as the Y2K problem was in 1970.)  But
surely this Y2K thing is exaggerated, right?

Then a few weeks ago I was talking with Ray Anderson of Interface carpet
company, who told me he had spent $20 million on reprogramming within his firm
and feels he's on top of Y2K.  But he can't say as much for his suppliers,
banks, shippers, electricity sources or customers.  Then he told me about a
dinner party with a high military officer at which he asked whether it might be
possible that a Y2K glitch could send off a missile.

The general turned white, admitted he'd never thought of that and said he'd
find out the very next day.  "He won't," said Amory Lovins, who was listening
in on our conversation.  "It'll take at least six months."

So now I'm taking Y2K seriously.  I don't plan to spend December 1999 panicking
and hoarding (which, if everyone did it, would create a Y2K problem even if the
computers work fine).  I'm just going to plant more potatoes and squash and dry
beans than usual and lay in extra firewood.

But what about that average bite of food, which presumably could be stuck on a
stalled train or hung up by a bounced credit card or a missing Social Security
check somewhere on its 1300 mile journey to the average American?

Thinking about that, I asked my brilliant research assistant Diana Wright to
track down where the 1300-mile number came from.  She found it in -- believe it
or not -- a defense department study conducted in 1969, right about the time
the programmers were creating the Y2K problem.  The Office of Civil Defense
tried to calculate how to get food to surviving Americans after a nuclear
attack.  The analysts looked at where food was grown (mainly the Midwest) and
where people lived (mainly the East), made some wild assumptions (such as
ignoring fruits and vegetables) and came up with a 1300 mile average shipping
distance.  (If it's any comfort, they concluded the distance would be less
post-attack, because East Coast populations would be so decimated.)

The number was too low then and must be way too low now, given the globalizing
market, lamb from New Zealand, oranges from Israel, apples from Chile, and 50
million more Americans than we had 30 years ago.  The point about vulnerability
holds, however, enhanced now by our increased dependence on foreign oil and on
those millions of buggy computers mediating our transactions.

We may have gotten past the threat of full-out nuclear attack (not sure).  We
may get past the Y2K meltdown (far from sure).  But there are other threats
ahead, predictable and unpredictable, probable and improbable, from climate
change to terrorists to toxic spills to Ebola virus to those asteroids the
movies are so obsessed with.

Why do we go on making our life support systems ever more interdependent and
unresilient?

(Donella H. Meadows is an adjunct professor of environmental studies at
Dartmouth College.)

"A Fold erdosegeinek kozel a fele eltunhet bolygonkrol 2100-ra,
jelentettek be a Tokioi Kutatointezet munkatarsai. Amennyiben tovabbra is
ilyen utemben folyik a felmelegedes, akkor ez a joslat a megadott idopontra
valosagga valhat. A bejelentest alapos szimulacios kutatasok eloztek meg. A
vizsgalat szerint a varhato 3,5 fokos homerseklet emelkedes az erdok 43
%-anak kipusztulasat idezheti elo."

(az avana egyesulet hirleveleben olvastam, ok pedig az ET-ben).